C Net Adjusted incorrect ? (tournaments)

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C Net Adjusted incorrect ? (tournaments)

Postby Parket » Thu Mar 01, 2012 6:47 pm

I play a lot of hyper HU SNGs, and it looks to me like the C Net Adjusted is not correct. I have the impression that it only looks at the final hand when you or your opponent busts.

Simple example:
Me: 510 chips
Opp: 490 chips

We go all-in for a coin-flip and Opp wins. I now have 20 and lose that in the next all-in. Now when looking at the Adjusted graph, it seems like the Adjusted is about equal to the actual money lost (i.e. 1 buy-in). This is clearly not correct, the Adjusted won for this tournament should be about 0 as the majority of the chips was won in a coinflip.
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Re: C Net Adjusted incorrect ? (tournaments)

Postby Parket » Thu Mar 01, 2012 7:07 pm

Another example that illustrates this.

Hand 2, all the money goes in on the river where I win. Result:
Me: 960
Opp: 40

Then opponent wins 3 all-ins where I'm the favorite. Let's say 60%. Eventually I lost the tournament. What does PT4 say: that my C Net Adjusted was negative. This can't be right. I had 60% in Hand 3, then another 60% in Hand 4, and another 60% in Hand 5. So the chance for me to win the tournament was already 0.6 + 0.4*0.6 + 0.4*0.4*0.6 = 94% !! Obviously the C Net Adjusted should have been at least 94% of a buy-in.
As it happened, a bit later I was shortstack, and then got it in as the underdog, which is probably why PT4 now says that my C Net Adjusted was negative.
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Re: C Net Adjusted incorrect ? (tournaments)

Postby WhiteRider » Fri Mar 02, 2012 4:18 am

The ICM calculations for tournament net adjusted results are being reworked for the next release so please don't go into this in too much detail yet. When the next beta comes out take another look and see how the results look then.
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Re: C Net Adjusted incorrect ? (tournaments)

Postby Parket » Fri Mar 02, 2012 4:59 am

Ok tx. BTW, please note that this has nothing to do with ICM (in HU there is no ICM as cEV = $EV) but that the actual $EV calculation has to be done through a Markov chain (more a tree, actually) for the possible outcomes of an all-in.
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Re: C Net Adjusted incorrect ? (tournaments)

Postby Yogi Rob » Fri Mar 02, 2012 10:44 am

Yes, the updated Net Adjusted calculations will be based on the ICM$ ev diff of every eligible all-in hand of the tourney. ICM calculations have not been changed.
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Re: C Net Adjusted incorrect ? (tournaments)

Postby Zangeeph » Fri Mar 02, 2012 5:42 pm

I just want a stat that shows $/hand, using ICM adjusted calculations. For example, if a tournament was $70 first, $30 2nd, $0 3rd and there were three players and the hand started as 2000, 1500, 1000 ($41.59, $34.19, $24.22 in terms of ICM) and ended as 3800, 1500, 200 ($56.92 $37.69 $5.39) their ICM values all changed. The first player made a net gain of $15.33, the second player made $3.5 (even though his chip count didn't change!) and the third player lost $18.83.

You say that the Net Adjusted would only apply to all in hands, so would it be impossible to build this stat?
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